Will Zamalek SC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $841 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$841.21
$1.85
95.4¢ → 97¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 96.3¢ | $823.17 | $813.13 | -$10.04 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $15.9 | $24.25 | +$8.35 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.47 | $3.47 | +$0 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $2.28 | $0.36 | +$3.54 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$823.17
Value
$813.13
PnL
-$10.04
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$24.25
PnL
+$8.35
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.47
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$0.36
PnL
+$3.54
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.