Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-10-29?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 85¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$14.8K
-$569.25
96.3¢ → 85¢
-12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $11.2K | $11.0K | $-1.0K | 93% 828-61 (889) |
GR graziek99 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$35.99 | 88% 384-52 (436) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $411.3 | $427.25 | +$522.17 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 91¢ | $255.06 | $266.38 | +$11.32 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 90¢ | $249.81 | $247.36 | -$15.74 | 53% 15855-14038 (29893) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $51.69 | $20 | -$15.75 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $6.32 | $7.14 | +$1.02 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $2.85 | $3.84 | +$0.99 | 47% 2177-2478 (4655) |
Invested
$11,166.78
Value
$11.0K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
93%
828-61 (889)
Invested
$2,885.35
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$35.99
Record
88%
384-52 (436)
Invested
$411.3
Value
$427.25
PnL
+$522.17
Record
50%
24694-24376 (49070)
Invested
$255.06
Value
$266.38
PnL
+$11.32
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$249.81
Value
$247.36
PnL
-$15.74
Record
53%
15855-14038 (29893)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$51.69
Value
$20
PnL
-$15.75
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.32
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$1.02
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.84
PnL
+$0.99
Record
47%
2177-2478 (4655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.