Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pyramids FC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.2K
-$279.25
59.4¢ → 50¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 58.4¢ | $1.2K | $974.14 | -$262.3 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 71¢ | $127.51 | $95.18 | -$32.33 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 44.1¢ | $72.59 | $88.97 | +$16.38 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $53.29 | $53.29 | +$0 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $5 | $5.35 | -$1 | 47% 2177-2478 (4655) |
Invested
$1,236.44
Value
$974.14
PnL
-$262.3
Record
50%
24694-24376 (49070)
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.51
Value
$95.18
PnL
-$32.33
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$72.59
Value
$88.97
PnL
+$16.38
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$53.29
Value
$53.29
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.35
PnL
-$1
Record
47%
2177-2478 (4655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.