Pyramids FC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 0.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$5.7K
$423.79
92.2¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 92.4¢ | $4.7K | $4.6K | +$350.19 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
 poshposh | Overavg 91¢ | $819 | $882 | +$63 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 92.5¢ | $73.11 | $77.45 | +$4.34 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $42.88 | $47.76 | +$4.87 | 47% 4505-4983 (9488) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $19 | $19.99 | +$0.99 | 76% 3976-1256 (5232) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.99 | +$0.39 | 77% 3212-969 (4181) |
Invested
$4,652.02
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$350.19
Record
50%
24694-24376 (49070)
poshposhInvested
$819
Value
$882
PnL
+$63
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
Invested
$73.11
Value
$77.45
PnL
+$4.34
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$42.88
Value
$47.76
PnL
+$4.87
Record
47%
4505-4983 (9488)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.99
Record
76%
3976-1256 (5232)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.39
Record
77%
3212-969 (4181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.