Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wadi Degla SC, while the market favors Pyramids FC (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pyramids FC (-1.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Wadi Degla SC (57%) · Wadi Degla SC at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Pyramids FC50¢Wadi Degla SC50¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wadi Degla SC

Consensus Traders

Wadi Degla SC 57%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$386.08

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 50¢

-27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralWadi Degla SC at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wadi Degla SC

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Pyramids FC 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pyramids FC50%

Wadi Degla SC50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wadi Degla SC4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,039

Combined PnL-$380.49

Pyramids FC3 traders

Total Value$13.41

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$5.59

Wadi Degla SC — 57%Pyramids FC — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Wadi Degla SC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWadi Degla SC 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPyramids FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWadi Degla SC 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWadi Degla SC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wadi Degla SC 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Wadi Degla SCavg 75.7¢	$905.76	$602.61	-$303.15	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
VeryLucky888	Wadi Degla SCavg 56¢	$251.87	$224.89	-$26.99	58% 41239-29904 (71143)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004	Wadi Degla SCavg 63¢	$252	$200	-$52	56% 146-114 (260)
RO Rocky31<$100	Pyramids FCavg 54¢	$9.72	$9	-$5.58	73% 1528-553 (2081)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wadi Degla SCavg 60.5¢	$6.05	$7.7	+$1.65	47% 2177-2478 (4655)
HRTrading<$100	Pyramids FCavg 22¢	$1.1	$2.5	+$1.4	52% 3711-3383 (7094)
CA Cannae<$100	Pyramids FCavg 40¢	$3.32	$1.91	-$1.41	53% 15855-14038 (29893)

UpTheBlues

Wadi Degla SC

Invested

$905.76

Value

$602.61

PnL

-$303.15

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

VeryLucky888

Wadi Degla SC

Invested

$251.87

Value

$224.89

PnL

-$26.99

Record

58%

41239-29904 (71143)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004

Wadi Degla SC

Invested

$252

Value

$200

PnL

-$52

Record

56%

146-114 (260)

Rocky31<$100

Pyramids FC

Invested

$9.72

Value

PnL

-$5.58

Record

73%

1528-553 (2081)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wadi Degla SC

Invested

$6.05

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$1.65

Record

47%

2177-2478 (4655)

HRTrading<$100

Pyramids FC

Invested

$1.1

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$1.4

Record

52%

3711-3383 (7094)

Cannae<$100

Pyramids FC

Invested

$3.32

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

15855-14038 (29893)

Research grade

NeutralWadi Degla SC at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wadi Degla SC

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Pyramids FC 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Wadi Degla SC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWadi Degla SC 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPyramids FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWadi Degla SC 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWadi Degla SC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wadi Degla SC 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wadi Degla SC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.