Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-10-29?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 71¢ · $666 held · ends Oct 29

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$666.12

Combined PnL

-$55.93

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$245.98

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$108.73

No4 traders

Total Value$420.14

Total Shares1,285

Combined PnL+$52.81

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 71¢	$351.16	$242.45	-$108.71	59% 45062-31458 (76520)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 28.1¢	$209.85	$220.61	+$10.76	58% 41190-29852 (71042)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 29¢	$100.13	$101.86	+$1.73	50% 24675-24348 (49023)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$49.95	$84.92	+$34.97	53% 15849-14027 (29876)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 29.6¢	$7.4	$12.75	+$5.35	47% 2159-2455 (4614)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.53	-$0.02	52% 3660-3323 (6983)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$351.16

Value

$242.45

PnL

-$108.71

Record

59%

45062-31458 (76520)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$209.85

Value

$220.61

PnL

+$10.76

Record

58%

41190-29852 (71042)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$100.13

Value

$101.86

PnL

+$1.73

Record

50%

24675-24348 (49023)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$84.92

PnL

+$34.97

Record

53%

15849-14027 (29876)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$5.35

Record

47%

2159-2455 (4614)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

3660-3323 (6983)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.