Pyramids FC vs. Wadi Degla SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $730 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$729.73
-$165.11
98.6¢ → 99.6¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ARTEM-DZYUBA | Overavg 99¢ | $700.18 | $704.42 | +$4.24 | — |
PE Peupo012CTR | Underavg 2.2¢ | $108.74 | $20.16 | -$88.58 | 34% 433-840 (1273) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $1.32 | $3.99 | +$1.46 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $70.2 | $1.08 | -$69.12 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $0.08 | -$13.12 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
ARTEM-DZYUBAInvested
$700.18
Value
$704.42
PnL
+$4.24
Record
—
Invested
$108.74
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$88.58
Record
34%
433-840 (1273)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$3.99
PnL
+$1.46
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$70.2
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$69.12
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$13.12
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.