National Bank of Egypt Club vs. El Masry SC: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$891.44

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 76.5¢

+79% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,937

Combined PnL+$868.65

Over2 traders

Total Value$100.32

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$22.79

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 42.9¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$826.94	59% 44606-31005 (75611)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 55.3¢	$55.53	$83.83	+$28.31	60% 9367-6346 (15713)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 45.8¢	$41.52	$62.37	+$20.85	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100	Overavg 56.3¢	$42.95	$54.72	+$11.77	47% 4449-4923 (9372)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.3¢	$33.45	$29.72	-$3.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 19¢	$9.5	$25	+$15.5
RN1<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$44.32	$51.84	+$7.52	54% 55713-47799 (103512)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 30¢	$10.8	$20.52	+$9.72	50% 32772-32329 (65101)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 39.8¢	$9.47	$17.58	+$8.12	53% 3050-2712 (5762)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 66.7¢	$22	$16.48	-$5.52	55% 8101-6542 (14643)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 34¢	$8.73	$4.24	-$4.49	67% 23106-11510 (34616)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,161.47

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$826.94

Record

59%

44606-31005 (75611)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.53

Value

$83.83

PnL

+$28.31

Record

60%

9367-6346 (15713)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$41.52

Value

$62.37

PnL

+$20.85

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$42.95

Value

$54.72

PnL

+$11.77

Record

47%

4449-4923 (9372)

Both legs:

Over$33.4556.3¢-$3.73

Under$9.519¢+$15.5

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$44.32

Value

$51.84

PnL

+$7.52

Record

54%

55713-47799 (103512)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$10.8

Value

$20.52

PnL

+$9.72

Record

50%

32772-32329 (65101)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.47

Value

$17.58

PnL

+$8.12

Record

53%

3050-2712 (5762)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22

Value

$16.48

PnL

-$5.52

Record

55%

8101-6542 (14643)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$8.73

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$4.49

Record

67%

23106-11510 (34616)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.