Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. El Masry SC: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $298 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$297.67
-$799.35
37.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 53¢ | $245.62 | $273.42 | +$27.81 | 54% 55713-47799 (103512) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $13.99 | $13.99 | +$0.01 | 53% 3050-2712 (5762) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $0.28 | $5.74 | +$5.46 | 47% 4449-4923 (9372) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $5 | $2.85 | -$0.65 | 47% 2044-2347 (4391) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 38.1¢ | $833.56 | $1.09 | -$832.47 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $9.23 | $0.57 | +$0.5 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
RN1Invested
$245.62
Value
$273.42
PnL
+$27.81
Record
54%
55713-47799 (103512)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.99
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
3050-2712 (5762)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$5.46
Record
47%
4449-4923 (9372)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.85
PnL
-$0.65
Record
47%
2044-2347 (4391)
Invested
$833.56
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$832.47
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9.23
Value
$0.57
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.