Will National Bank of Egypt Club win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$118.03

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 89.5¢

+31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,329

Combined PnL+$85.82

Yes3 traders

Total Value$236.2

Total Shares460

Combined PnL+$32.21

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 69¢	$710.59	$715.74	+$5.15	59% 30088-20807 (50895)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 67.5¢	$494.75	$516.87	+$22.12	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67¢	$445.3	$484.39	+$39.09	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 27.8¢	$453.54	$310.07	-$143.47	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$220.88	$222.12	+$1.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.8¢	$232.66	$87.95	-$144.71
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$150.29	$195.44	+$45.16	53% 15741-13910 (29651)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 69.2¢	$77.61	$100.24	+$22.63	50% 32772-32329 (65101)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 75¢	$66.08	$62.55	-$3.52	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$53.54	$40.59	-$12.95	60% 9362-6344 (15706)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 67¢	$10.73	$11.09	+$0.36	53% 3047-2709 (5756)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.16	$0.17	+$0.01	50% 12108-12317 (24425)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$710.59

Value

$715.74

PnL

+$5.15

Record

59%

30088-20807 (50895)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$494.75

Value

$516.87

PnL

+$22.12

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$445.3

Value

$484.39

PnL

+$39.09

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$453.54

Value

$310.07

PnL

-$143.47

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

Both legs:

No$220.8889¢+$1.24

Yes$232.6627.8¢-$144.71

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$150.29

Value

$195.44

PnL

+$45.16

Record

53%

15741-13910 (29651)

SnakeBall

Invested

$77.61

Value

$100.24

PnL

+$22.63

Record

50%

32772-32329 (65101)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$66.08

Value

$62.55

PnL

-$3.52

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.54

Value

$40.59

PnL

-$12.95

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.73

Value

$11.09

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

12108-12317 (24425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.