Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will El Masry SC win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$202.39

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 34.5¢

-45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,252

Combined PnL-$73.79

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,574

Combined PnL+$276.18

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 65.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 37.6¢	$311.27	$541.69	+$230.42	50% 32772-32329 (65101)
RN1	Yesavg 61.2¢	$288.89	$311.74	+$22.85	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 48.8¢	$94.27	$122.58	+$28.31	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 51.2¢	$129.87	$84.92	-$44.94	60% 9362-6344 (15706)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$63.48	$60.08	-$3.4	59% 30088-20807 (50895)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$45.06	$34.82	-$10.24	53% 15741-13910 (29651)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 41.3¢	$29.81	$24.53	-$5.27	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$6.75	$6.55	-$0.2	47% 2041-2345 (4386)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$3.34	$3.2	-$0.13	53% 3047-2709 (5756)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,175.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$311.27

Value

$541.69

PnL

+$230.42

Record

50%

32772-32329 (65101)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$288.89

Value

$311.74

PnL

+$22.85

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$94.27

Value

$122.58

PnL

+$28.31

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$129.87

Value

$84.92

PnL

-$44.94

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$63.48

Value

$60.08

PnL

-$3.4

Record

59%

30088-20807 (50895)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$45.06

Value

$34.82

PnL

-$10.24

Record

53%

15741-13910 (29651)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.81

Value

$24.53

PnL

-$5.27

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.55

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.