Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will National Bank of Egypt Club vs. El Masry SC end in a draw?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 24¢ · $309 held · ended Oct 28

Yes76¢No24¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$308.99

Combined PnL

$12.87

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 24¢

-63% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$180.56

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$12.42

Yes4 traders

Total Value$128.43

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$25.29

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Noavg 68.4¢	$135.51	$134.69	-$0.83	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$35.73	$53.78	+$18.05	59% 44606-31005 (75611)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 50.9¢	$36.61	$44.27	+$7.66	50% 32772-32329 (65101)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$55.08	$43.38	-$11.7	54% 55713-47799 (103512)
MY myxi<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$25.74	$25.16	-$0.58	68% 337-158 (495)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$5.06	$5.22	+$0.16	60% 9367-6346 (15713)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$2.39	$2.49	+$0.1	50% 12109-12317 (24426)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Invested

$135.51

Value

$134.69

PnL

-$0.83

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.73

Value

$53.78

PnL

+$18.05

Record

59%

44606-31005 (75611)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.61

Value

$44.27

PnL

+$7.66

Record

50%

32772-32329 (65101)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$55.08

Value

$43.38

PnL

-$11.7

Record

54%

55713-47799 (103512)

myxi<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.74

Value

$25.16

PnL

-$0.58

Record

68%

337-158 (495)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.16

Record

60%

9367-6346 (15713)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.