Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$4.1K
$822.61
76.8¢ → 100¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 77.8¢ | $2.6K | $3.1K | +$514.21 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 19¢ | $208.39 | $553.16 | +$344.77 | 54% 56032-48155 (104187) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 69.2¢ | $411.08 | $329.16 | -$81.91 | 59% 45098-31483 (76581) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 93.4¢ | $61.72 | $63.62 | +$1.91 | 52% 3691-3354 (7045) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 11.2¢ | $12.4 | $56.04 | +$43.64 | 49% 12395-12710 (25105) |
Invested
$2,574.32
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$514.21
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
RN1CTRInvested
$208.39
Value
$553.16
PnL
+$344.77
Record
54%
56032-48155 (104187)
Invested
$411.08
Value
$329.16
PnL
-$81.91
Record
59%
45098-31483 (76581)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$61.72
Value
$63.62
PnL
+$1.91
Record
52%
3691-3354 (7045)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$56.04
PnL
+$43.64
Record
49%
12395-12710 (25105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.