Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 62¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 92%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$445.16

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 61.5¢

+12% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,673

Combined PnL+$379.63

Under11 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,530

Combined PnL+$65.53

Over — 8%Under — 92%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Shimi1234CTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$379.63	38% 103-167 (270)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$19.83	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.5¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$227.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.6¢	$974.21	$727.24	-$246.97
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 54¢	$902.15	$1.0K	+$125.3	50% 2481-2470 (4951)
RN1	Underavg 52.9¢	$864.8	$1.0K	+$140.45	54% 56027-48153 (104180)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 54¢	$945.27	$866.5	-$78.77	49% 12393-12710 (25103)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 59.5¢	$888.88	$813.63	-$75.25	59% 45094-31483 (76577)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 55.2¢	$598.96	$601.38	-$17.57	58% 41216-29879 (71095)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$358.47	$285.58	-$72.89	50% 33056-32625 (65681)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$263.07	$188.61	-$74.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$95.4	$96.97	+$1.56
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 53.5¢	$214	$198	-$16	54% 4826-4064 (8890)
CA Cannae	Underavg 54¢	$188.59	$172.87	-$15.72	53% 15855-14037 (29892)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 54¢	$68.04	$77.49	-$0.63	58% 28254-20837 (49091)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47	$50.5	+$3.5	49% 18818-19217 (38035)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$3.67	$4.21	+$0.54	52% 3688-3350 (7038)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.48	-$0.32	47% 2163-2470 (4633)

Shimi1234CTR

Over

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$379.63

Record

38%

103-167 (270)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,733.31

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$19.83

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

Both legs:

Under$1,759.154.5¢+$227.14

Over$974.2151.6¢-$246.97

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$902.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$125.3

Record

50%

2481-2470 (4951)

RN1

Under

Invested

$864.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$140.45

Record

54%

56027-48153 (104180)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$945.27

Value

$866.5

PnL

-$78.77

Record

49%

12393-12710 (25103)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$888.88

Value

$813.63

PnL

-$75.25

Record

59%

45094-31483 (76577)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$598.96

Value

$601.38

PnL

-$17.57

Record

58%

41216-29879 (71095)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$358.47

Value

$285.58

PnL

-$72.89

Record

50%

33056-32625 (65681)

Both legs:

Under$263.0753¢-$74.45

Over$95.461¢+$1.56

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$214

Value

$198

PnL

-$16

Record

54%

4826-4064 (8890)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$188.59

Value

$172.87

PnL

-$15.72

Record

53%

15855-14037 (29892)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$68.04

Value

$77.49

PnL

-$0.63

Record

58%

28254-20837 (49091)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

49%

18818-19217 (38035)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.67

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$0.54

Record

52%

3688-3350 (7038)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.32

Record

47%

2163-2470 (4633)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.