Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 76¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$6.5K
-$92.38
74.2¢ → 75.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 73.2¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$107.5 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 24.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$279.01 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
 RN1 | Overavg 79.5¢ | $730.35 | $692.39 | -$37.96 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 27.7¢ | $462.33 | $625.41 | +$163.08 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 27.5¢ | $355.79 | $271.36 | -$28.6 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $69.69 | $51.01 | -$18.68 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $14.04 | $14.31 | +$0.27 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $2.48 | +$1.03 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
Invested
$3,263.95
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$107.5
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$1,759.35
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$279.01
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
RN1Invested
$730.35
Value
$692.39
PnL
-$37.96
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
Invested
$462.33
Value
$625.41
PnL
+$163.08
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$355.79
Value
$271.36
PnL
-$28.6
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$69.69
Value
$51.01
PnL
-$18.68
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$14.04
Value
$14.31
PnL
+$0.27
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$1.03
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.