Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 0.5
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 100¢ · $53K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
10
Over 70%
$53.3K
$235.98
97.8¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoinTrick | Overavg 99.9¢ | $40.0K | $40.0K | +$20 | 98% 3157-75 (3232) |
 RN1 | Overavg 89.4¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | -$38.2 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 89.6¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$109.39 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 10.6¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$106 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 91¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$21.94 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 97.2¢ | $200 | $182.06 | -$17.94 | 77% 3211-969 (4180) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 8¢ | $27.3 | $167.21 | +$139.91 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
 poshposh | Overavg 89¢ | $133.5 | $76.5 | -$57 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 98¢ | $5.51 | $4.97 | -$0.53 | 64% 1051-598 (1649) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $47.83 | $0.24 | -$47.59 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
CoinTrickInvested
$39,964.87
Value
$40.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
98%
3157-75 (3232)
RN1Invested
$4,907.39
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$38.2
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
Invested
$3,217.43
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$109.39
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$3,219.78
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$106
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
Invested
$1,371.38
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$21.94
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
Invested
$200
Value
$182.06
PnL
-$17.94
Record
77%
3211-969 (4180)
Invested
$27.3
Value
$167.21
PnL
+$139.91
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
poshposhInvested
$133.5
Value
$76.5
PnL
-$57
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$0.53
Record
64%
1051-598 (1649)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$47.83
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$47.59
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.