Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold El Ahly SC, while the market favors Modern SC (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: El Ahly SC (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold El Ahly SC (71%) · El Ahly SC at 0.1¢ · $819 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
El Ahly SC
7
El Ahly SC 71%
$818.62
-$461.69
47.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidEl Ahly SC at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Modern SC 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | El Ahly SCavg 48.1¢ | $880.39 | $485.92 | -$394.47 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
UP UpTheBlues | Modern SCavg 65.2¢ | $319.83 | $247.54 | -$72.29 | 59% 45098-31483 (76581) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Modern SCavg 54¢ | $49.41 | $46.21 | -$3.2 | 49% 18820-19225 (38045) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | El Ahly SCavg 34.3¢ | $18.74 | $27.06 | +$8.32 | 58% 41218-29884 (71102) |
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100 | El Ahly SCavg 56¢ | $7.86 | $6.95 | -$0.91 | 53% 711-637 (1348) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | El Ahly SCavg 40.4¢ | $3.33 | $4.08 | +$0.75 | 52% 3691-3354 (7045) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | El Ahly SCavg 43¢ | $0.75 | $0.87 | +$0.11 | 54% 56032-48155 (104187) |
Invested
$880.39
Value
$485.92
PnL
-$394.47
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
Invested
$319.83
Value
$247.54
PnL
-$72.29
Record
59%
45098-31483 (76581)
Invested
$49.41
Value
$46.21
PnL
-$3.2
Record
49%
18820-19225 (38045)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$18.74
Value
$27.06
PnL
+$8.32
Record
58%
41218-29884 (71102)
Invested
$7.86
Value
$6.95
PnL
-$0.91
Record
53%
711-637 (1348)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.33
Value
$4.08
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
3691-3354 (7045)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.87
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
56032-48155 (104187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.