Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 35¢ · $284 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$284.46
-$0.65
35.1¢ → 35¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $234.47 | $234.47 | -$0 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $37.08 | $37.08 | +$0 | 53% 15854-14033 (29887) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $10.5 | -$0.75 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 35.4¢ | $10.63 | $2.41 | +$0.1 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
Invested
$234.47
Value
$234.47
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$37.08
Value
$37.08
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15854-14033 (29887)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$0.75
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10.63
Value
$2.41
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.