Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: Both Teams to Score
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 66¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$3.2K
$113.99
58.8¢ → 65.5¢
+11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 54.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$94.79 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 62.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$18.37 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
 RN1 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $504.25 | $493.87 | -$10.38 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 55.9¢ | $226.14 | $236.49 | +$10.34 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $30.55 | $30.59 | +$1.26 | 50% 2481-2470 (4951) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $6.3 | $5.81 | -$0.49 | 55% 8179-6588 (14767) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $3.23 | $3.33 | +$0.1 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
Invested
$1,191.55
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$94.79
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
Invested
$1,081.66
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$18.37
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
RN1Invested
$504.25
Value
$493.87
PnL
-$10.38
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
VeryLucky888Invested
$226.14
Value
$236.49
PnL
+$10.34
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$30.55
Value
$30.59
PnL
+$1.26
Record
50%
2481-2470 (4951)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$0.49
Record
55%
8179-6588 (14767)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.23
Value
$3.33
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.