Will Sharkia ENPPI win on 2026-10-30?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 86¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Yes86¢No14¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$25.3

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 85.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$947.85

Total Shares1,308

Combined PnL+$25.33

No2 traders

Total Value$5.64

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$0.03

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 82¢	$513.39	$523.04	+$9.66	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 59¢	$152.13	$155.67	+$3.54	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
RN1	Yesavg 59¢	$122.26	$124.69	+$2.43	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
BE Betziko	Yesavg 60.3¢	$114.75	$116.03	+$1.28	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$301.47	$90.13	-$211.34	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.8¢	$289.99	$63.32	-$226.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$11.48	$26.82	+$15.34
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$20	$28.42	+$8.42	67% 23273-11679 (34952)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.43	+$0.03	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$14.09	$2.21	-$0.05	58% 41507-30134 (71641)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$513.39

Value

$523.04

PnL

+$9.66

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$152.13

Value

$155.67

PnL

+$3.54

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$122.26

Value

$124.69

PnL

+$2.43

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

Betziko

Yes

Invested

$114.75

Value

$116.03

PnL

+$1.28

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$301.47

Value

$90.13

PnL

-$211.34

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Both legs:

No$289.9961.8¢-$226.68

Yes$11.4837¢+$15.34

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$28.42

PnL

+$8.42

Record

67%

23273-11679 (34952)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$14.09

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.