Will El Qanah Club vs. Sharkia ENPPI end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.2K
-$9.82
87.8¢ → 89¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 88.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$8.18 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $127.92 | $122.11 | -$5.81 | 49% 18995-19405 (38400) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $15.14 | $16.66 | +$1.52 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $14.8 | +$1.2 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $26.83 | $12.04 | -$14.8 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $6.6 | $6.55 | -$0.05 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $3.93 | -$0.09 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $1.72 | +$0.02 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
Invested
$1,044.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$8.18
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$127.92
Value
$122.11
PnL
-$5.81
Record
49%
18995-19405 (38400)
Invested
$15.14
Value
$16.66
PnL
+$1.52
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$14.8
PnL
+$1.2
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
Invested
$26.83
Value
$12.04
PnL
-$14.8
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.02
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.09
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.02
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.