El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 90¢ · $740 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$739.86
$155.35
76.8¢ → 90¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 18¢ | $192.45 | $318.5 | +$126.05 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 88¢ | $183.26 | $184.3 | +$1.04 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 65.5¢ | $131.69 | $166.96 | +$29.24 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $42.3 | $46.21 | +$3.91 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 12¢ | $24.99 | $23.95 | -$1.04 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 68.8¢ | $17.31 | $22.26 | +$4.95 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $8.2 | $7 | -$1.2 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 68.5¢ | $6.85 | $6.65 | -$0.2 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $5.34 | $4.81 | -$0.53 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $2.7 | $2.95 | +$0.25 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $1.78 | $2.49 | +$0.71 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
Invested
$192.45
Value
$318.5
PnL
+$126.05
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$183.26
Value
$184.3
PnL
+$1.04
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888Invested
$131.69
Value
$166.96
PnL
+$29.24
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$42.3
Value
$46.21
PnL
+$3.91
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$7
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$6.65
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$0.53
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$2.49
PnL
+$0.71
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.