Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-10-30?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 76¢ · $319 held · ended Oct 30

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$319.01

Combined PnL

$2.27

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$94.29

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$1.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.59

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0.82

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$131.45	$133.27	+$1.82	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$69.66	$70.63	+$0.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.6¢	$61.79	$62.64	+$0.85
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$85.29	$83.19	-$2.1	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.3¢	$60.3	$60.43	+$0.13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$24.99	$22.76	-$2.23
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 73¢	$53.29	$52.93	-$0.37	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$21.65	$21.9	+$0.25	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$13.4	$15	+$1.6	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$4.02	$4.67	+$0.65	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.07	$3.03	-$0.04	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.58	+$0.18	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 71¢	$1.42	$1.43	+$0.01	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.35	+$0	47% 2270-2553 (4823)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$131.45

Value

$133.27

PnL

+$1.82

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

No$69.6672¢+$0.97

Yes$61.7926.6¢+$0.85

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$85.29

Value

$83.19

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Both legs:

No$60.374.3¢+$0.13

Yes$24.9928¢-$2.23

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$53.29

Value

$52.93

PnL

-$0.37

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$21.9

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

$15

PnL

+$1.6

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2270-2553 (4823)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.