Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will El Ittihad SC El Iskandary win on 2026-10-30?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 38¢ · $330 held · ends Oct 30

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$329.9

Combined PnL

-$6.1

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$224.79

Total Shares592

Combined PnL-$5.92

No3 traders

Total Value$105.1

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$0.19

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$230.71	$224.79	-$5.92	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$46.35	$46.64	+$0.28	52% 3994-3636 (7630)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 62¢	$39.87	$39.87	-$0.32	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 64¢	$19.2	$18.6	-$0.15	47% 2255-2545 (4800)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$230.71

Value

$224.79

PnL

-$5.92

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$46.35

Value

$46.64

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

3994-3636 (7630)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$39.87

Value

$39.87

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

2255-2545 (4800)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.