Asyut Petroleum SC vs. El Gouna SC: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 72¢ · $358 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$357.57
-$90.19
64.7¢ → 72¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 64.5¢ | $386.98 | $293.98 | -$92.99 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Overavg 34.9¢ | $10.99 | $16.06 | +$5.07 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $12.58 | $12.49 | -$0.09 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $11.69 | $11.41 | -$0.28 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 28.3¢ | $8.76 | $9.6 | +$0.84 | 38% 3192-5199 (8391) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 65.7¢ | $9.85 | $7.35 | -$2.5 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $4.26 | $4.33 | +$0.06 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $2.65 | $2.35 | -$0.3 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$386.98
Value
$293.98
PnL
-$92.99
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$10.99
Value
$16.06
PnL
+$5.07
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$0.09
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$11.69
Value
$11.41
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$8.76
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0.84
Record
38%
3192-5199 (8391)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$7.35
PnL
-$2.5
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.33
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.