Sunderland AFC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 67¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 28

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares39,474

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,958

Combined PnL+$264.14

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 38¢	$15.0K	$11.8K	$-3.2K	48% 129-138 (267)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 62.6¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$58.21	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.4¢	$980.09	$1.9K	+$920.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.6¢	$1.5K	$675.37	-$862.15
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 62¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$197.47	50% 219-221 (440)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 62¢	$464.6	$524.46	+$59.87	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
RN1CTR	Underavg 63¢	$365.4	$406	+$40.6	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 74¢	$116.11	$117.33	+$1.22	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Under leg	Underavg 74¢	$88.06	$89.84	+$1.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 25¢	$28.05	$27.49	-$0.56
poshposhCTR	Underavg 70¢	$105	$70.5	-$34.5	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$6.3	$7	+$0.7	51% 1291-1227 (2518)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$14,999.86

Value

$11.8K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

48%

129-138 (267)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,517.62

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$58.21

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Over$980.0937.4¢+$920.37

Under$1,537.5362.6¢-$862.15

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$1,530.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$197.47

Record

50%

219-221 (440)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$464.6

Value

$524.46

PnL

+$59.87

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$365.4

Value

$406

PnL

+$40.6

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$116.11

Value

$117.33

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Invested

$105

Value

$70.5

PnL

-$34.5

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.3

Value

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.