Sunderland AFC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (15%) · Over at 91¢ · $67K held · ended Oct 28

Over91¢Under9¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 15%

Total Value

$66.9K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 90.5¢

+52% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$46.2K

Total Shares76,927

Combined PnL+$269.4

Under11 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares42,068

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over — 15%Under — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 59.7¢	$45.9K	$46.2K	+$269.17	48% 129-138 (267)
RN1CTR	Underavg 40¢	$5.1K	$6.7K	+$1.6K	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LA LaarsYCTR	Underavg 40¢	$4.1K	$5.1K	+$977.84	50% 3375-3317 (6692)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 40¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$1.64	50% 219-221 (440)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 47.2¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$244.98	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 40.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.32	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 40¢	$607.32	$743.97	+$136.65	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 40.7¢	$610.64	$600.66	-$9.98	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 40¢	$560	$560	+$0	54% 4810-4044 (8854)
us391CTR	Underavg 40¢	$218.03	$218.03	+$0	51% 1647-1581 (3228)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$26.57	$26.3	-$0.27	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 89¢	$10.82	$11.05	+$0.23	62% 13617-8456 (22073)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$8.2	$8	-$0.2	51% 1291-1227 (2518)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$45,880.89

Value

$46.2K

PnL

+$269.17

Record

48%

129-138 (267)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$5,090.43

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LaarsYCTR

Under

Invested

$4,117.2

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$977.84

Record

50%

3375-3317 (6692)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$3,488.4

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.64

Record

50%

219-221 (440)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,579.77

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$244.98

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,439.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.32

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$607.32

Value

$743.97

PnL

+$136.65

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$610.64

Value

$600.66

PnL

-$9.98

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$560

Value

$560

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4810-4044 (8854)

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$218.03

Value

$218.03

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1647-1581 (3228)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.57

Value

$26.3

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$10.82

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.23

Record

62%

13617-8456 (22073)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.