Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 13¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
3 arb excluded
$5.8K
-$45.49
53.1¢ → 12.5¢
-76% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 74.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.0K | -$380.74 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 74.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$13.56 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 39.1¢ | $1.1K | $689.77 | -$367.18 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 34.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.2K | -$409.8 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 74.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$67.12 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34.5¢ | $1.3K | $840.86 | -$476.92 | |
BA BayupatiCTR | Noavg 78¢ | $270.64 | $281.05 | -$1.73 | 51% 196-189 (385) |
LI LilybaeumARB<$100 | Yesavg 72.3¢ | $237.46 | $233.75 | -$3.72 | 62% 13617-8456 (22073) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 72.3¢ | $132.76 | $140.48 | +$7.73 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26.4¢ | $104.7 | $93.26 | -$11.44 | |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.4¢ | $56.91 | $46.99 | -$9.91 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 72.3¢ | $97.82 | $30 | +$9.05 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $25.5 | $21.18 | -$4.31 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $55.01 | $19.15 | -$35.85 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $7.7 | $4.97 | -$2.73 | 73% 1485-544 (2029) |
Invested
$3,363.6
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$380.74
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,607.66
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$409.8
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Both legs:
Invested
$270.64
Value
$281.05
PnL
-$1.73
Record
51%
196-189 (385)
Invested
$237.46
Value
$233.75
PnL
-$3.72
Record
62%
13617-8456 (22073)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.91
Value
$46.99
PnL
-$9.91
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$97.82
Value
$30
PnL
+$9.05
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$21.18
PnL
-$4.31
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$55.01
Value
$19.15
PnL
-$35.85
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$2.73
Record
73%
1485-544 (2029)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.