Will Sunderland AFC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
$47.51
80.1¢ → 89.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$28.08 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LI Lilybaeum | Noavg 80.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$21.5 | 62% 13617-8456 (22073) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 78¢ | $184.73 | $185.96 | +$1.23 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74¢ | $130.28 | $115.52 | +$0.4 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $104.74 | $110.33 | +$5.59 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78¢ | $74.88 | $76.32 | +$1.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18¢ | $29.86 | $34.01 | +$4.15 | |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $42.02 | $42.2 | +$0.18 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $38.64 | $34.77 | -$3.87 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
RN1Invested
$2,272.75
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$28.08
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$1,313.51
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$21.5
Record
62%
13617-8456 (22073)
Invested
$184.73
Value
$185.96
PnL
+$1.23
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
VeryLucky888Invested
$130.28
Value
$115.52
PnL
+$0.4
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$104.74
Value
$110.33
PnL
+$5.59
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.02
Value
$42.2
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$38.64
Value
$34.77
PnL
-$3.87
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.