Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 55¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$129.86

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,187

Combined PnL-$9.86

No2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,000

Combined PnL-$120

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$100.06	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.2¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$108.69
└ No leg	Noavg 46.1¢	$688.2	$679.58	-$8.63
KK kkpay19888	Yesavg 54¢	$993.46	$984.26	-$9.2	51% 522-510 (1032)
ReformedxCTR	Noavg 53¢	$1.1K	$970	-$90	52% 791-734 (1525)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Noavg 50¢	$1.0K	$950	-$30	49% 85-90 (175)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 54¢	$725.18	$718.46	-$6.71	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 54¢	$1.3K	$433.16	+$0.92	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$63.03	$67.06	+$3.35	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$51.7	$55	+$1.65	58% 28123-20732 (48855)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.73	+$0.13	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,209.11

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$100.06

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

Yes$2,520.952.2¢+$108.69

No$688.246.1¢-$8.63

kkpay19888

Yes

Invested

$993.46

Value

$984.26

PnL

-$9.2

Record

51%

522-510 (1032)

ReformedxCTR

Invested

$1,060

Value

$970

PnL

-$90

Record

52%

791-734 (1525)

DolphinBallerCTR

Invested

$1,000

Value

$950

PnL

-$30

Record

49%

85-90 (175)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$725.18

Value

$718.46

PnL

-$6.71

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$1,338.6

Value

$433.16

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.03

Value

$67.06

PnL

+$3.35

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.7

Value

$55

PnL

+$1.65

Record

58%

28123-20732 (48855)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.