Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 6.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$90.21

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 99¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,854

Combined PnL+$28.68

Over3 traders

Total Value$168.48

Total Shares2,819

Combined PnL+$61.53

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 97.7¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$44.38	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 94.7¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$108.12	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 93.5¢	$250.17	$215.11	-$35.06	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
RN1CTR	Overavg 4.8¢	$55.84	$131.3	+$75.46	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 3.2¢	$49.61	$35.69	-$13.92	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 1.5¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$4,001.03

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$44.38

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,467.76

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$108.12

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$250.17

Value

$215.11

PnL

-$35.06

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$55.84

Value

$131.3

PnL

+$75.46

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.61

Value

$35.69

PnL

-$13.92

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.