Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 46¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$6.4K
-$34.53
45.2¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 stringXXCTR | Overavg 45.3¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$44.24 | 50% 94-94 (188) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$18.35 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 ComingBack | Underavg 55¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | +$0 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 55¢ | $696.41 | $702.74 | +$6.33 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 54¢ | $372.51 | $382.86 | +$10.35 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 54.4¢ | $549.82 | $277.5 | +$11.38 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
stringXXCTRInvested
$2,436.4
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$44.24
Record
50%
94-94 (188)
Invested
$1,664.11
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$18.35
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
ComingBackInvested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
Invested
$696.41
Value
$702.74
PnL
+$6.33
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$372.51
Value
$382.86
PnL
+$10.35
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
VeryLucky888Invested
$549.82
Value
$277.5
PnL
+$11.38
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.