Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Over85¢Under15¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$10.54

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,528

Combined PnL-$15.28

Under4 traders

Total Value$487.94

Total Shares3,207

Combined PnL+$25.82

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 86¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15.28	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 14¢	$222.55	$238.21	+$15.66	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 14.7¢	$188.94	$160.48	+$6.07	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$52.99	$54.78	+$1.79	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$32.17	$34.47	+$2.3	50% 32789-32345 (65134)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,314.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15.28

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$222.55

Value

$238.21

PnL

+$15.66

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$188.94

Value

$160.48

PnL

+$6.07

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.99

Value

$54.78

PnL

+$1.79

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.17

Value

$34.47

PnL

+$2.3

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.