Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 0.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$2.2K
$1.2K
93.6¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NordhavenCap | Overavg 93.3¢ | $811.2 | $865.15 | +$53.95 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 4.1¢ | $66.82 | $788.66 | +$721.83 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 96.7¢ | $79.02 | $340.98 | +$261.95 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 3.1¢ | $10.9 | $172.82 | +$161.92 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.7¢ | $25.75 | $44.65 | +$18.9 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 98.5¢ | $18.62 | $18.63 | +$0.01 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.8¢ | $1.01 | $10.19 | +$9.18 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 95.4¢ | $9.94 | $5.37 | -$4.57 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
Invested
$811.2
Value
$865.15
PnL
+$53.95
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
RN1CTRInvested
$66.82
Value
$788.66
PnL
+$721.83
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$79.02
Value
$340.98
PnL
+$261.95
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$172.82
PnL
+$161.92
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$25.75
Value
$44.65
PnL
+$18.9
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.62
Value
$18.63
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$10.19
PnL
+$9.18
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$9.94
Value
$5.37
PnL
-$4.57
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.