Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester City FC (67%) · Manchester City FC at 99¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Manchester City FC
9
Manchester City FC 67%
$12.3K
$146.41
87.8¢ → 98.9¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralManchester City FC at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Manchester City FCavg 93¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$52.43 | 52% 2056-1861 (3917) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Manchester City FCavg 77.1¢ | $4.0K | $4.7K | +$723.15 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
UP UpTheBlues | Manchester City FCavg 98¢ | $2.5K | $2.0K | -$504.93 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
OL OldZzCTR | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 24¢ | $324 | $310.5 | -$13.5 | 48% 95-101 (196) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Manchester City FCavg 88.4¢ | $142.88 | $139.81 | -$3.07 | 80% 4969-1228 (6197) |
 RN1CTR | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 7.1¢ | $108.38 | $121.57 | +$13.2 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
FO foooool | Manchester City FCavg 97¢ | $116.25 | $102.68 | -$13.57 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Manchester City FCavg 93.3¢ | $70.06 | $67.61 | -$2.45 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 6¢ | $3.05 | $3.05 | -$0 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
Invested
$4,876.12
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$52.43
Record
52%
2056-1861 (3917)
Invested
$3,965.77
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$723.15
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$2,515.03
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$504.93
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$324
Value
$310.5
PnL
-$13.5
Record
48%
95-101 (196)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$142.88
Value
$139.81
PnL
-$3.07
Record
80%
4969-1228 (6197)
RN1CTRInvested
$108.38
Value
$121.57
PnL
+$13.2
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$116.25
Value
$102.68
PnL
-$13.57
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$70.06
Value
$67.61
PnL
-$2.45
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0F62
Manchester City FC — $4.8K
GoalLineGhost
Manchester City FC — $4.7K
UpTheBlues
Manchester City FC — $2.0K
OldZz
CTRBrighton & Hove Albion FC — $310.5
ZaiZoiBele
Manchester City FC — $139.81
RN1
CTRBrighton & Hove Albion FC — $121.57
foooool
Manchester City FC — $102.68
HRTrading
Manchester City FC — $67.61
SnakeBall
CTRBrighton & Hove Albion FC — $3.05