Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-28?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$1.8K
-$10.65
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe1666d904d93B2172d2ee0B01a78affAfE058F14-1768421530120 | Yesavg 60¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 38% 22-36 (58) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 40.8¢ | $425.17 | $330.51 | -$8.34 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 40.6¢ | $155.66 | $153.52 | -$2.15 | 53% 15681-13855 (29536) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $6.1 | $6.03 | -$0.07 | 50% 182-179 (361) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $1.89 | $3.04 | -$0.08 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$1,324.49
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
22-36 (58)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$425.17
Value
$330.51
PnL
-$8.34
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$155.66
Value
$153.52
PnL
-$2.15
Record
53%
15681-13855 (29536)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$6.03
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
182-179 (361)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.89
Value
$3.04
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.