Manchester City FC leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.6K
-$158.53
66.4¢ → 100¢
+51% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67.7¢ | $857.51 | $724.45 | -$133.06 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 RN1 | Noavg 65.5¢ | $645.38 | $541.67 | -$103.71 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 63.6¢ | $154.29 | $236.86 | +$82.57 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $263.05 | $114.46 | -$9.47 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $9.72 | $15.38 | +$5.67 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.55 | $0.03 | -$0.52 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$857.51
Value
$724.45
PnL
-$133.06
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
RN1Invested
$645.38
Value
$541.67
PnL
-$103.71
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$154.29
Value
$236.86
PnL
+$82.57
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$263.05
Value
$114.46
PnL
-$9.47
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.72
Value
$15.38
PnL
+$5.67
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.52
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.