Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Draw at halftime?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$2.3K
$1.1K
85¢ → 100¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 15¢ | $419.7 | $1.8K | +$1.4K | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 85¢ | $562 | $234.72 | -$327.28 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 poshposh | Yesavg 85¢ | $127.5 | $149.93 | +$22.43 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Noavg 66.1¢ | $119 | $116.08 | -$2.92 | 59% 30106-20832 (50938) |
RN1CTRInvested
$419.7
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$562
Value
$234.72
PnL
-$327.28
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
poshposhInvested
$127.5
Value
$149.93
PnL
+$22.43
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$119
Value
$116.08
PnL
-$2.92
Record
59%
30106-20832 (50938)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.