Brighton & Hove Albion FC leading at halftime?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$11.22
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $999 | $999.5 | +$0.5 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 28.8¢ | $568.04 | $450.99 | -$117.05 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 28.8¢ | $541.46 | $347.83 | -$193.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21¢ | $26.58 | $103.16 | +$76.58 | |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 61¢ | $78.19 | $103.16 | +$24.97 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $5.88 | $5.84 | -$0.03 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $17.65 | $5.01 | -$12.64 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $74.31 | $3.75 | +$1.13 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $5.41 | $2.71 | -$2.71 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
Invested
$999
Value
$999.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
Invested
$568.04
Value
$450.99
PnL
-$117.05
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$78.19
Value
$103.16
PnL
+$24.97
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$17.65
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$12.64
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$74.31
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$1.13
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$2.71
PnL
-$2.71
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.