Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$4.3

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 98.2¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,521

Combined PnL-$2.22

Yes3 traders

Total Value$130.69

Total Shares2,949

Combined PnL-$2.07

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97.1¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$31.54	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 97.6¢	$585.6	$555	-$30.6	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$45.21	$65.31	+$20.1	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$75.81	$57.02	-$18.79	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$50.37	$47.21	-$3.16	53% 696-625 (1321)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$11.75	$8.36	-$3.39	50% 12135-12341 (24476)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,785.78

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$31.54

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$585.6

Value

$555

PnL

-$30.6

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.21

Value

$65.31

PnL

+$20.1

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.81

Value

$57.02

PnL

-$18.79

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$50.37

Value

$47.21

PnL

-$3.16

Record

53%

696-625 (1321)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.75

Value

$8.36

PnL

-$3.39

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.