Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 23¢ · $377 held · ended Oct 28

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$377.41

Combined PnL

-$42.51

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$329.22

Total Shares6,931

Combined PnL-$42.44

No3 traders

Total Value$48.19

Total Shares51

Combined PnL-$0.08

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RI RichieRicherCTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$6.9K	$329.22	-$42.44	53% 696-625 (1321)
RN1<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$19.83	$19.75	-$0.08	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$18.96	-$0.04	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$9.43	$9.48	+$0.05	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

RichieRicherCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,930.91

Value

$329.22

PnL

-$42.44

Record

53%

696-625 (1321)

RN1<$100

Invested

$19.83

Value

$19.75

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$18.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.2%

23.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$296.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

396.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.