Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

18¢ → 61¢

+238% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,683

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No3 traders

Total Value$276.81

Total Shares309

Combined PnL-$5.17

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 22.5¢	$547.26	$1.5K	+$935.47	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1	Yesavg 9.3¢	$119.05	$533.85	+$414.8	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
RI RichieRicherCTR	Noavg 93¢	$265.24	$259.54	-$5.7	53% 696-625 (1321)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 92¢	$103.5	$11.38	+$0.88	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 55.6¢	$6.24	$5.9	-$0.34	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.15	$1.54	+$0.39	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$547.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$935.47

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$119.05

Value

$533.85

PnL

+$414.8

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

RichieRicherCTR

Invested

$265.24

Value

$259.54

PnL

-$5.7

Record

53%

696-625 (1321)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$103.5

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$0.88

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$6.24

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.