Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$3.8K
$1.8K
90¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI RichieRicherCTR | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $541.08 | $2.4K | +$1.8K | 53% 696-625 (1321) |
 RN1 | Noavg 90¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$7.92 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $58.66 | $33.61 | -$25.05 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.75 | $12.25 | +$9.5 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$541.08
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
53%
696-625 (1321)
RN1Invested
$1,425.6
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$7.92
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$58.66
Value
$33.61
PnL
-$25.05
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
$12.25
PnL
+$9.5
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.