Will Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$16.3K
$34.68
80.1¢ → 80.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI RichieRicher | Noavg 80.1¢ | $11.5K | $11.5K | +$56.73 | 53% 696-624 (1320) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$19.63 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.4¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$38.8 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20¢ | $791.15 | $771.98 | -$19.17 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $864.91 | $835.26 | -$10.29 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $259.87 | $248.18 | -$11.69 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $1.68 | $1.62 | -$0.06 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
Invested
$11,463.62
Value
$11.5K
PnL
+$56.73
Record
53%
696-624 (1320)
Invested
$3,654.31
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$19.63
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$864.91
Value
$835.26
PnL
-$10.29
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$259.87
Value
$248.18
PnL
-$11.69
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$0.06
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.