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5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$284.99

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,307

Combined PnL+$257.13

No3 traders

Total Value$228.13

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$27.86

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 66¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$137.66	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 66¢	$654.83	$788.52	+$133.69	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$271.65	$271.78	+$0.14	99% 12681-184 (12865)
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 99¢	$236.87	$238.06	+$1.2	80% 4969-1228 (6197)
FO foooool	Yesavg 66.7¢	$224.45	$208.89	-$15.56	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 33.7¢	$155.42	$175.05	+$19.63	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$43.1	$51.19	+$8.08	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.9	+$0.15	63% 1083-626 (1709)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,069.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$137.66

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$654.83

Value

$788.52

PnL

+$133.69

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$271.65

Value

$271.78

PnL

+$0.14

Record

99%

12681-184 (12865)

ZaiZoiBele

Yes

Invested

$236.87

Value

$238.06

PnL

+$1.2

Record

80%

4969-1228 (6197)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$224.45

Value

$208.89

PnL

-$15.56

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$155.42

Value

$175.05

PnL

+$19.63

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$43.1

Value

$51.19

PnL

+$8.08

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

63%

1083-626 (1709)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.