Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 84¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$20.3K
$85.35
81.1¢ → 83.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI RichieRicher | Noavg 81.1¢ | $17.9K | $18.1K | +$198.92 | 53% 696-624 (1320) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$54.33 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $401.5 | $390.35 | -$11.15 | 50% 218-221 (439) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 79¢ | $242.41 | $245.48 | -$10.74 | 47% 2407-2692 (5099) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $14.04 | $12.87 | -$1.17 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.31 | -$36.19 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $1.72 | $1.73 | +$0.01 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
Invested
$17,868.51
Value
$18.1K
PnL
+$198.92
Record
53%
696-624 (1320)
Invested
$1,655.04
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$54.33
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$401.5
Value
$390.35
PnL
-$11.15
Record
50%
218-221 (439)
Invested
$242.41
Value
$245.48
PnL
-$10.74
Record
47%
2407-2692 (5099)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14.04
Value
$12.87
PnL
-$1.17
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,450.91
Value
$2.31
PnL
-$36.19
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$1.72
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.01
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.