Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 95¢ · $776 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$775.9
-$0.26
93.4¢ → 95.2¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 93.2¢ | $334.49 | $339.48 | +$4.99 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 RN1 | Underavg 94¢ | $298.29 | $299.88 | +$1.59 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.8¢ | $91.26 | $82.35 | -$8.9 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $25 | $27.5 | +$2.5 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $18.86 | $18.25 | -$0.61 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $6.69 | $6.85 | +$0.15 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 93.5¢ | $1.57 | $1.6 | +$0.03 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$334.49
Value
$339.48
PnL
+$4.99
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
RN1Invested
$298.29
Value
$299.88
PnL
+$1.59
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$91.26
Value
$82.35
PnL
-$8.9
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$27.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$18.86
Value
$18.25
PnL
-$0.61
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$6.69
Value
$6.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
28127-20735 (48862)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.57
Value
$1.6
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.