Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (84%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 17¢ · $218 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$217.96
-$10.51
20¢ → 16.5¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 23.3¢ | $219 | $49.09 | -$9.17 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $49.61 | $46.59 | -$3.02 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 16.1¢ | $42.84 | $43.87 | +$1.02 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $36.76 | $37.59 | +$0.84 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $27.27 | $27.27 | +$0 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $13.73 | $13.56 | -$0.17 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$219
Value
$49.09
PnL
-$9.17
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$49.61
Value
$46.59
PnL
-$3.02
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$42.84
Value
$43.87
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$36.76
Value
$37.59
PnL
+$0.84
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$27.27
Value
$27.27
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.73
Value
$13.56
PnL
-$0.17
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.