Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 60¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$9.1K
$167.18
57.1¢ → 59.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 43.5¢ | $3.1K | $3.0K | -$96.03 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$13.53 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$109.56 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 57¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$81.95 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 58¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$24.11 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
RA rabbitfoot1 | Underavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$59.58 | 53% 1103-975 (2078) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 41¢ | $763.02 | $772.32 | +$9.31 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 58¢ | $391.5 | $398.25 | +$6.75 | 50% 6813-6826 (13639) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 42.6¢ | $329.05 | $303.75 | -$15.09 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $48.61 | $49.19 | +$0.58 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
Invested
$3,079.76
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$96.03
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,868.46
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$81.95
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$1,398.47
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$24.11
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
Invested
$1,112.1
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$59.58
Record
53%
1103-975 (2078)
us391CTRInvested
$763.02
Value
$772.32
PnL
+$9.31
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
Invested
$391.5
Value
$398.25
PnL
+$6.75
Record
50%
6813-6826 (13639)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$329.05
Value
$303.75
PnL
-$15.09
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$48.61
Value
$49.19
PnL
+$0.58
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.