Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Over64¢Under36¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$8.6

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 63.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,415

Combined PnL+$9.53

Under3 traders

Total Value$190.03

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$0.92

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 63¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.29	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 63¢	$243.74	$245.68	+$1.93	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 37¢	$143.15	$141.21	-$1.93	50% 24859-24561 (49420)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 66¢	$71.14	$68.45	-$2.69	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$44.51	$45.17	+$0.66	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.65	+$0.35	53% 15742-13910 (29652)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,216.45

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.29

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$243.74

Value

$245.68

PnL

+$1.93

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$143.15

Value

$141.21

PnL

-$1.93

Record

50%

24859-24561 (49420)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$71.14

Value

$68.45

PnL

-$2.69

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.51

Value

$45.17

PnL

+$0.66

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.